Arvind Mehta, Joint Secretary, Ministry of Commerce, Government of India
B&E: What is the growth forecast of commerce in 2011 for India?
Arvind Mehta (AM): Exports should touch $300 billion. It’s a little ambitious to my expectations, mainly because of 3 or 4 major sectors. Petroleum exports are going to be high mainly because we have gained higher refinery capacity. This is presupposing that no major bump happens in the European economy, which is an area of great concern. The American Economy is also a concern but right now, the focus is on what’s happening in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland.
B&E: What would be the level of impact on Indian economy if there is a European economic crisis, something which is very much expected?
AM: There can be an overall slowdown that can impact the domestic side also. But I am always optimistic that we can outperform the other economies. So whatever happens, it has to be seen in relevant terms, as we are looking at 8.5% economic growth right now.
B&E: Talking about inflation, how much do you think this could impact the entire demand-supply situation?
AM: Everybody seems to take inflation numbers wrongly and it is difficult to have a guess but generally if you look at it the optimistic way, then the authorities try and contain the inflation rate to below 5% but that never works out. The more realistic kind of people talk about the Inflation rate at about 7-8% which is reasonably a good estimate. So if your monsoon is good, we should not worry about double digit inflation and if it’s good and you are able to control inflation even at the level of 7-8%, then it’s something, which the Indian economy has been taking its stride since many many years in the past. In fact, one good news happening in a sense is if we look at last year’s inflation, which was close to 11% and the growth rate, which was almost 9%. So in nominal terms, we grew at nearly 20% and in real terms, we grew at nearly 9%.
B&E: Do you feel that falling growth rate combined with the European and American economic situation could hamper our growth?
AM: We have seen some slowdown; at least that’s what most people think. There is rationale in the view that Indian economy will also see some slowdown but as long as export markets are not impacted too heavily, the slowdown may be more moderate in comparison.
Arvind Mehta (AM): Exports should touch $300 billion. It’s a little ambitious to my expectations, mainly because of 3 or 4 major sectors. Petroleum exports are going to be high mainly because we have gained higher refinery capacity. This is presupposing that no major bump happens in the European economy, which is an area of great concern. The American Economy is also a concern but right now, the focus is on what’s happening in Italy, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland.
B&E: What would be the level of impact on Indian economy if there is a European economic crisis, something which is very much expected?
AM: There can be an overall slowdown that can impact the domestic side also. But I am always optimistic that we can outperform the other economies. So whatever happens, it has to be seen in relevant terms, as we are looking at 8.5% economic growth right now.
B&E: Talking about inflation, how much do you think this could impact the entire demand-supply situation?
AM: Everybody seems to take inflation numbers wrongly and it is difficult to have a guess but generally if you look at it the optimistic way, then the authorities try and contain the inflation rate to below 5% but that never works out. The more realistic kind of people talk about the Inflation rate at about 7-8% which is reasonably a good estimate. So if your monsoon is good, we should not worry about double digit inflation and if it’s good and you are able to control inflation even at the level of 7-8%, then it’s something, which the Indian economy has been taking its stride since many many years in the past. In fact, one good news happening in a sense is if we look at last year’s inflation, which was close to 11% and the growth rate, which was almost 9%. So in nominal terms, we grew at nearly 20% and in real terms, we grew at nearly 9%.
B&E: Do you feel that falling growth rate combined with the European and American economic situation could hamper our growth?
AM: We have seen some slowdown; at least that’s what most people think. There is rationale in the view that Indian economy will also see some slowdown but as long as export markets are not impacted too heavily, the slowdown may be more moderate in comparison.
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles.
IIPM Best B School India
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman
IIPM's Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
IIPM Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri on Internet Hooliganism
Arindam Chaudhuri: We need Hazare's leadership
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri - A Man For The Society....
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
