Showing posts with label Business and Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business and Economy. Show all posts

Friday, May 10, 2013

How will the ‘Age of Big Data’ affect management?

Will access to Big Data further enable fact-based decision-making or analysis paralysis? Will analytics, as well as the supply of analytics-savvy managers, so badly lag ‘big data’ that it will only lead to confusion and misguided decisions? An exclusive HBS Working Knowledge article.

Ideas and trends converge from time to time in a way that suggests the possible shape of the future. Sometimes I think I can comprehend what they may mean. But other times I know I need help. This is one of those times.

Just two decades ago, we didn’t have Google and other information sources; storage constraints would not have permitted Google to provide everyday access to the ‘world’s information’. If we had had the information, we couldn’t have accessed it effectively anyway. Email systems were not widely available, let alone mobile devices with capacity to access the data. Now the capacity to store and access information through cloud computing is so great that we are entering a post-Google era in which new organisations like Factual (founded by a former Google employee) have set as their goal that of providing access to all of the world’s facts. Presumably this means data such as the location of every factory in the world, data that has not already been massaged and spun. Some facts have to be acquired and organised. Other facts are generated by so-called digital sensors operating worldwide in industrial equipment, autos, and the like. By linking the sensors, an ‘industrial Internet’ can be created. These trends appear to have ‘opportunity’ written all over them, particularly for those who are training now for jobs in data analytics. In addition to less wasteful marketing efforts (we should be able to know, for example, ‘which half’ of advertising is effective, thereby making an old marketing saw obsolete), they should produce more effective business strategies and inject added certainty into the appraisal of opportunities for new business startups. Furthermore, analytics (not the data) should be a source of continuing competitive advantage. In his new book, Charles Duhigg describes how the retailer Target uses data on consumption patterns to discern and address promotions to pregnant customers, perhaps even before they’ve announced their pregnancy to friends (and Target competitors). This is particularly important because pregnancy is one of those life events associated with significant shifts in consumption habits.

A problem is that the shortage of experts in data analytics (some call them ‘data whisperers’) is so acute that it may be years before a sufficient supply can be trained. The McKinsey Global Institute estimates that up to 190,000 are needed now in US, along with 1.5 million managers capable of using their work. The shortage appears to be growing along with the potential for competitive advantage associated with data analytics.

This all raises many questions. Will the age of big data eliminate most or all uncertainty from business decisions for those most able to make effective use of ‘all the facts in the world?’ Will it fuel the next ‘gold rush’ for talent in a quest for competitive advantage? Will analytics, as well as the supply of analytics-savvy managers, so badly lag ‘big data’ that it will only lead to confusion and misguided decisions? Or is this just the latest management fad? How, if at all, should this affect education for management? What do you think?


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 
2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall

Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
BBA Management Education



Wednesday, May 8, 2013

In pursuit of happy capitalism

Policies should be directed at making the environment for entrepreneurship far more enabling in India than what it is today. However, entrepreneurs must also contribute to the larger social goal in their own interest

Eight out of the world’s top ten richest people on the Forbes’ The World’s Billionaires 2011 List are self-made, that is, people who have not simply inherited their fortunes, but have built them over time due to their entrepreneurial vision, exemplary leadership and years of hard work. And of course, a huge majority in this list hails from the US, a country that has successfully nurtured the spirit of entrepreneurship since ages; and is also the nation with the highest GDP in the world. These people are the perfect embodiments of leadership, who inspire millions to live their dreams and make them a reality, even in the most unfavourable of circumstances. But there is something more compelling that these entrepreneurs manage to achieve. Through employment generation and equitable wealth creation within masses, these entrepreneurs contribute immensely to nation building and to the subsequent upliftment of disadvantaged sections.

In other words, it cannot ever be overstated that promoting entrepreneurship is absolutely essential for progress – and more so if it’s the case of India that we’re discussing. The Economic Survey for 2011-12 laments that while India is the world’s 4th largest economy, it is also the poorest among G-20 nations in terms of per capita income, which was around $1,527 in 2011. It has been also estimated by the World Bank that India has more than 400 million people living below the poverty line; UN confirms that more than 700 million Indians live on less than $2 a day. These figures are shockingly mammoth.

Entrepreneurship could very well be the only real hope for India to create virtuous cycles of employment to ensure that a massive majority of these disadvantaged classes are uplifted in quick time. If China could manage this kind of a feat, then I fail to understand why can’t India? Between 1981 and 2004, China got more than 600 million people out of poverty – this is more than has ever been achieved by any nation in history. UNDP data estimates that the incidence of rural poverty in China went down from 30.7% in 1978 to 1.6% in 2007. These electrifying improvements correspond to the spectacular rise of Chinese manufacturing and the growth of hundreds of thousands of Chinese entrepreneurs throughout the nation – and all with the proactive support of the State, which ensured continued public-private coordination throughout this growth story.

Leave the macro story, even at the micro/corporate level, promoting entrepreneurship – even within an organisation – is critically essential, The most respected Peter F. Drucker strongly believed that no organisation can dream of being stupendously innovative unless its employees are die-hard entrepreneurs; warriors who live and die with the consistently burning desire to start something new! If I were to expansively summarise the import of his iconic book Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Drucker defined an entrepreneur as an innovator and vice versa. Indeed, that key character trait that separates these entrepreneurs and innovators from the rest is ‘passion’. In a path-breaking May 2007 official Microsoft research release (‘The Rich Have Money – And Passion’), the Harrison Group, a leading international research firm, showed how 70% of America’s big family fortunes are less than 13 years old (that is, they’re not ‘inherited’) and more importantly, that “the people who amassed those fortunes are primarily entrepreneurs – risk takers for whom wealth is a by product of pursuing their passion!”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Indira Gandhi’s proudest moment: Victory of 1971

Events that led to the surrender of the Pakistani forces in 1971, saw Indira Gandhi earning the name of ‘Iron Lady’. Her uncompromising attitude won India a war that even four decades later, is highlighted in history books as event that made India proud of its empathetic foreign policy and powerful armed forces

Forty one years ago on December 16, 1971, the Pakistan Army – under the-then the commander of the Eastern Command of Pakistan, Lt. Gen. A. A. K. Niazi – surrendered to the Indian Army at the Dhaka Racecourse (also known as Ramna Racecourse ground) in Bangladesh. The surrender of the Pakistan army – before the-then commander of the Eastern Command of India and the General Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Indian and Bangladeshi forces, Lt. Gen Jagjit Singh Aurora – was a landmark event that will be remembered as one of India’s most glorious moments. Also, India’s victory over Pakistan and the birth of Bangladesh (the erstwhile East Pakistan) have gone down in history as the-then Indian PM Indira Gandhi’s biggest achievements.

The victory of India over Pakistan in the war of 1971 has been one of the most successful wars ever fought in the history of democratic India. It became a shining example of how resolute leadership at the political and military levels can bring desired results. This war not only resulted in the surrender of 93,000 prisoners of war but also brought a new country into existence. What was so special about this episode? It happened to be the only instance that saw a new nation being born as a result of a war between other nations.

In many ways, it was the 1971 victory that made Indira Gandhi the icon that she is today. It was also a time of some hardcore nationalistic diplomacy during a time when the whole world had turned against India for its decision to go ahead with the war. The United States had exercised an enormous amount of pressure to avert India’s attack and even threatened India with dire consequences. But Indira Gandhi chose to ignore it.

Under Indira Gandhi’s leadership, India provided shelter, food and medicines to about 10 million people who in their attempt to escape attacks by the Pakistani army, fled East Pakistan to flock to the states of West Bengal, Tripura, Meghalaya and Assam. India extended full support to the Bangladeshi freedom fighters providing them arms and training facilities. India sent its troops to fight against the Pakistani forces under a Joint Command with Bangladesh – at the fag end of a nine month-long war that put Bangladesh on the world map. The success was achieved with the support of civilians and well-organised rebels under the ‘Mukti Bahini’. Indira Gandhi’s stand was also solidly backed by the erstwhile Soviet Union.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman

ExecutiveMBA

IndiGo wants to win through discounting

Kingfisher is desperate for cash flow. Spicejet is aiming at market share. Jet desires to get back to its old profit-making habit. IndiGo wants to win through discounting. And Air India is simply paralysed. In such an unstable environment, will the formation of a cartel to control price satisfy the varied agendas of our aviators?

That demand hasn’t shrunk is good news for conspiring airlines – the purpose of cartelisation is being served. But airlines argue otherwise. Their claim – fair pricing strategy is being followed, no union has been formed to cheat fliers, and the overall increase in fares only happened because two airlines Kingfisher and AI have shed weight. [In the first 9 months of 2012, KFA’s flight count fell y-o-y by 65.19% and AI’s 39.31%.]

They have a point. A reduction in supply causes price to rise for market to be in equilibrium. And that is one reason why prices have skyrocketed since January this year. In the nine months leading to September 2012, the number of departures fell y-o-y by 28.45% (to 421,883), and the number of seat units supplied fell by 25.74% (to 58,880,373). How much of the price increase does this fall in supply justify? As per the paper titled, ‘An Airline-Based Multilevel Analysis of Airfare Elasticity’, by Castelli, Pesenti & Ukovich, the price elasticity of supply (frequency) is 0.862. Another study by Jorge and Calderon, titled, ‘A Demand Model for Scheduled Airline Services’, puts the figure at 0.79 to 1.26. Giving airlines the benefit of doubt, we take 1.26 as our figure. Calculations prove that as supply gets reduced by 25.74%, prices could rise by 32.43%. Market dynamics does therefore explain a significant portion of the price rise. Blaming airlines of colluding to fix price isn’t sufficient an argument.

Those who argue that cartelisation is in vogue in the Indian aviation industry might also want to consider the rise in count of players. As compared to a decade back, we have double the number of airlines today (eight), which makes cartel formation less likely. Adds Gordon Bevan, VP, UM Aviation, to B&E, “Cartels are most effective when there are fewer players. There are too many players at present in the Indian airline circles for them to conform to a cartel pricing regime.” There is too much to gain by the profitable market leaders by pricing competitively rather than throwing a cartel-style lifeline to those that really need price stability. Ask yourself – why should a SpiceJet or an Indigo provide KFA or AI an extended period of competitive relief?

There is the claim that FSCs are influencing the LCCs to set floor prices, which creates very little difference (less than $9 in some routes) between their entry fares. At present, LCCs account for 55.74% of the flights that operate on domestic networks across India (during Jan-Sept 2012), and 59% of passengers (September 2012). In short, LCCs dominate the Indian skies. How are FSCs arm-twisting the dominant no-frills lot into fixing their fares? Difficult to believe.

There is another argument that strongly goes against any possibility of a cartel in operation in India. Of the two airlines that made profits last year and are expected to make money again this financial year, both are LCCs. Had the FSCs been involved in fixing prices, they would have applied sounder mathematics to ensure their bottomlines do not bleed. Instead, it is the influenced group (LCCs) that is experiencing a positive cash flow. What manner of cartel is this that does not profit the supposedly ‘powerful, influential’ side?


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman

ExecutiveMBA

Sunday, May 5, 2013

"It is one of the ideas I am most proud of"

Dr. Li Ka-Shing doesn’t really need an introduction. With a net worth of $25.5 billion, the Hong Kong business magnate has built one of the greatest business empires. In this interview, he speaks about the goals of his charitable giving and the role of his gifts in transforming lives through learning

Can we reflect a bit on the idea behind the Li Ka-Shing Foundation? It would be great to have some insight regarding your motivation to set up an independent foundation, and perhaps about the particular aims that the foundation’s projects have tried to further. You have referred to it in the past as your ‘third son’ Li Ka-Shing (LKS): It is one of the ideas I am most proud of. Maybe even the idea I am most proud of. I had made donations before [the Foundation was set up in 1980]and giving had been part of my life ever since my companies had achieved enduring success. But, I was worked over by thoughts about what would happen if times would turn bad and cash would be tight and scarce, and by the fact that without a system and an independent entity that implements it, this philanthropic work could not develop and grow on its own. Running a business is difficult work and takes a lot of time and attention, and there are additionally many temptations which could lead one away from the hard work that philanthropy requires. Then, early in the morning, I had the thought of creating the Foundation and thinking about it as a ‘third son,’ an independent, autonomous entity that would pursue its mission, stay true to its course and have the resources to do so.

The ‘third son’ metaphor is particularly suggestive for Asian cultures – educational, even.

LKS: That is true. In fact, I refer to the Foundation as a ‘him’ in some of my messages, to reinforce the imagery of personhood. It is a powerful metaphor in a culture where wealth is passed predominantly along family lines. Thinking about an instrument for doing social good as a child – as your child, in particular – focuses you as the giver on building an entity that is robust, one that has inner strength.

It is relevant that the over-arching goal of the Foundation is ‘to promote a culture of giving’ for which the Foundation itself is a paradigm example?

LKS: This is true. There is an example in the act of setting it up, especially in a culture in which these organizations are unusual. But, the Foundation tries to develop and nurture a culture of giving within its projects as well. For example, we have built and are supporting hospices for terminally ill cancer patients in China. To date, we have built 42 hospices that care for 20,000 terminally ill patients every year, enabling them to spend their last days in comfort and dignity.

I sense a strong commitment, a bias, even, towards projects – such as the hospice for the terminally ill and the surgical cleft lip and palate repair centres that address, and redress slights to human dignity. Would you agree?

LKS:
I do feel a special commitment to helping people lead their lives in dignity. As is often the case, it relates to a personal experience. I was 15, and my father had passed away a year earlier. A relative whose circumstances were even direr than mine and who was having a very difficult time making a living in Hong Kong said that she needed to bring her children back to Chaozhou. I gave her enough money for food for her whole family during their long boat journey back to mainland. This was a heavy burden for me at the time, as I was poor, and had to work hard to support my own family. But she had no one to turn to except me. On the day that they were to depart on the ship, she came to me, crying. She said that all the food they had prepared for the six-day journey had been stolen. I had no other resources. But I felt compelled to help her. So, I took the clothes that my father had left behind and pawned them for cash. It was my first and only time in a pawn shop. I took the cash, bought food, and returned to the pier only to see that their ship had just raised the first sail to set off. I hired a sampan to go after them, but a sampan is no match for a sailboat in terms of speed, and we fell farther and farther behind. But, I noticed that everyone on their ship had gathered on one side, waving to me and yelling something I could not understand. I was too far away to hear what they were saying. The ship finally raised all three sails and gained greater speed. We went after them for over an hour to no avail. Finally we had to give up and turn back. I was certain I had disappointed my relative and I felt heavyhearted. Later, I received a letter from her. She had returned to her home village. She said that my attempt that day to catch up to them to give them food had touched the captain and all the passengers. They all shared their own food with her family. My attempt had gained her their respect. The passengers on the boat were shouting at me to go back because they wanted to let me know that they would themselves take care of my relative and her children. They took care of her, because they saw that she was cared for by someone else. This episode will always stay with me. It shows how care can restore and even create dignity, which, once created, begets more care.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 
IIPM’s Management Consulting Arm-Planman Consulting
Professor Arindam Chaudhuri – A Man For The Society….
IIPM: Indian Institute of Planning and Management
IIPM makes business education truly global
Management Guru Arindam Chaudhuri
Rajita Chaudhuri-The New Age Woman

ExecutiveMBA

Friday, May 3, 2013

B And E This Month

share price
The world in thrall of Apple’s magical success
Nothing succeeds like success and the stratospheric rise of Apple’s shares in recent months defy the laws of business gravity. Its share price has been on a steroidal sprint ever since Apple became the world’s most valuable public company back in August, elbowing out long-time rival Microsoft from the tech pedestal. After the company announced its earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2012, its share price picked even greater velocity, climbing 22% over the past three months, and sending its market cap gyrating above $650 billion. The past few days have seen its share price ascend to heart-stopping vertiginous heights, climbing over $700, in large part hopped up by the blockbusting sales of iPhone 5. Estimates say Apple would have sold between six and eight million units of iPhone5 in its first weekend on the shelves. So maddening has been the demand that over two million units sold out in the first 24 hours of its launch and they has been vanishing faster from shop shelves than would woolen sweaters from Antartica. Some analysts are predicting that the iPhone5 could eventually drive the price of Apple stock to a staggering $850 in the weeks to come. Apple’s stock price will have to to climb to $1067 for the company to hit a trillion dollars in market cap. If the success of its iPhones are an indicator, Apple can well keep marching ahead and sew up 30-60% of the mobile computing market, which seems like the easiset and fastest route for the company to touch the one trillion dollar milestone. If Apple becomes the first company on the planet to reach that goal, it would indeed be the most befitting tribute for its legendary former CEO and founder Steve Jobs.

on the hunt

Brazil could be its next big playground
China’s Lenovo Group, the world’s second-largest PC maker, will be buying out Brazil’s largest domestic PC manufacturer CCE. The deal is estimated around $150 million. Brazil is a promising consumer market where Lenovo will also be able to retail mobile phones and televisions as part of its growing product line. The company recently announced plans to build a $30 million factory there. The acquisition will also help Lenovo climb to third spot in PC sales in Brazil from the current seventh position. Many Chinese tech companies have set up base in Brazil like Foxconn, which has installed a local manufacturing facility to make phones and notebooks. Lenovo also plans to invest $100 million in research and development in its Brazilian facility over the next five years. The Brazilian technology market for smartphones, TVs, notebooks, PCs et al is worth roughly $124 billion. China continues to be Lenovo’s biggest market with 42% of sales coming from there, but due to slowing growth there, the company is rapidly scaling its operations in the fast growing and promising BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) markets.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 
2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall

Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
BBA Management Education

Thursday, May 2, 2013

TRAI: A woeful downslide

The Indian telecom sector’s current situation merits a more progressive line of thinking from the regulator to ensure that the sector continues to progress on the government’s stated agenda of inclusion. But TRAI’s recommendations for 2G auctions and spectrum refarming would actually end up achieving more of the opposite.

In July 2012, India’s mobile GSM subscriber base reached 679.05 million from just over 1 million in 1998 through just voice services for the most part. And by that time, CDMA subscriptions had reached around 230 million (AUSPI). This stupendous growth in subscriptions has been a revelation of sorts globally, along with the surprisingly low price points at which Indian telecom players are providing these services. From an ARPU of Rs.362/user/month for GSM players in December 2005, the figure has declined to Rs.100/user/month in March 2011 as per a PwC report. The report further highlights that India’s ARPUs are around 3 and 10 times lower than developing and developed countries respectively on an average.

However, the recent trends point to trouble in paradise. For a sector that is already struggling with low ARPUs, slowing penetration and high debt, the last straw would really be a lack of appreciation of its achievements and insensitivity towards its pressing issues. But unfortunately, that insensitivity is real, and it is coming from none other than the regulatory authority TRAI. By proposing a spectrum reserve price of Rs.36.22 billion per MHz on a pan-India basis in the 1800 MHz. band for the 2G spectrum bidding process planned in November, the regulator is imposing a burden that only serves to undo much of the good that has been achieved by the telecom sector in the past.

In February this year, the Supreme Court quashed all 122 licenses that were given out during the A. Raja regime, and TRAI came up with its revised recommendations as per the SC’s directions. The price it has proposed has united an otherwise intensely competitive industry against what they term as an atrocious figure. The price is 10 times higher than the benchmarks used under A. Raja. And at Rs.180 billion plus for 5 MHz, it even beats the 3G auctions that took place last year, where the reserve price was Rs.168.28 billion (and they were globally declared as atrociously overpriced!). The regulator has stuck by its argument and asserts that the new reserve price will impose a relatively insignificant burden on end consumers. Later on, the industry got some respite as an Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) panel led by then Home Minister P. Chidambaram brought down the reserve price to between Rs.141.11 billion Rs.151.11 billion for 5 MHz. on a pan-India basis. But players are far from satisfied. The level of competition this time around for the re-auctioning process is not as bullish as it was when the first auction was carried out. One has to keep in mind that licences of most of the telcos are up for renewal soon. Also, they would not be exempted from paying for the spectrum they gain through any source (direct buying via auction or M&A activity). Thus, the incumbents are feeling reluctant to join the bidding process. The same goes for the relatively new operators in India, for their investments have really not paid off well. TRAI is assured of 2-3 big telecom players participating in the process, but it already seems that the top circles may not see significant participation due to high prices.

There are legitimate reasons why such exorbitant pricing will do little more than providing some short term gains to the government. TRAI has gone on and on discussing how the price will have limited impact on the balance sheet and the impact will in fact come further down over a period of 20 years. But Franco Bernabè, Chairman, GSMA and Chairman & CEO, Telecom Italia Group, cautions with respect to the TRAI decision, “Efforts to squeeze money out of mobile operators for some perceived short-term gain will only reduce investment in networks, inhibit growth of mobile services and drive up consumer prices – limiting the value that the public will derive from spectrum resource in the long term.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 
2012 : DNA National B-School Survey 2012
Ranked 1st in International Exposure (ahead of all the IIMs)
Ranked 6th Overall

Zee Business Best B-School Survey 2012
Prof. Arindam Chaudhuri’s Session at IMA Indore
IIPM IN FINANCIAL TIMES, UK. FEATURE OF THE WEEK
IIPM strong hold on Placement : 10000 Students Placed in last 5 year
BBA Management Education

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

No more the good guy

E. coli is now declared a human hazard as scientists are observing a discomfiting link to bowel & colon cancer. The world must act.

Beware! E. coli is a dire human threat now. Research done by medical scientists in Britain has revealed that the primary cause of one of the most common cancers is the E. coli virus.

As a matter of fact, Escherichia coli (commonly known as E. coli) happens to be the most studied organism in the world. It is a very complex group of gut bacteria that’s found in all warm-blooded animals including humans. The general theory and empirical evidence till date postulated that the bacterium was mostly harmless. This bacterium has even been deemed in some past studies as being essential for the survival of human beings and cattle as it helps to digest food. But recently, medical tests have revealed that E. coli might be the main cause of bowel/colorectal cancer (a disease which claims 600,000 plus lives a year, as per WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer). Tests have indicated that E. coli bacteria are more prevalent among bowel cancer patients than otherwise. A germ being the root cause of cancer may seem uncommon. However, it is not totally out-of-place, as it has been proved beyond doubt that there are living viruses that cause cervical cancer and bacteria that lead to stomach cancer.

E. coli reportedly has genes that are poisonous and lead to DNA damage that is common in cancer. However, it is not a sureshot cause of food poisoning and can remain dormant in the bowels with no ill effects. But the recurrence is high in patients. This is reflected in a study published in Journal Science. A sample size of 21 taken from bowel cancer patients revealed that two thirds of them were carriers of this bug; whereas among healthy individuals, that rate is just one-fifth. Experiments on these lines are carried out extensively on mice. They also show that bowel cancers are much more frequent when the bacteria with a particularly DNA damaging pks gene is present in the body.

It is also suspected by researchers that E. coli is a carrier of colon cancer, and its involvement is deeper than previously thought. Professor Jonathan Rhodes of Liverpool University is studying this with keen interest, and opines from his own analysis, “The bottomline message is that there seems to be a strong association between a type of E. coli and the development of colon cancer. And given that this type of E. coli is specifically able to damage DNA and inflict the sort of damage you get in a cancer, it is very likely that it has a causative role, at least in some patients.”

Read more....

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Can the Dragon execute the ‘soft’ landing?

The world views with mixed feelings of awe, admiration, cynicism and even some apprehension, as the Chinese Communist Party undergoes a transition in leadership in August, as is customary in the country once in ten years. The 18th National Congress is now widely expected to see Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang as the new President and Premier of China, replacing Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao respectively, a process which should be culminated by early next year.

It would be a gross understatement to call this the end of an era, besides the fact that it was the first peaceful regime change witnessed by the People’s Republic of China (Mao’s last years saw the Cultural Revolution accompanied by large scale violence and the end of Deng Xiaoping’s regime was marked by the infamous Tiananmen Square protests and subsequent military intervention). In the period since Hu Jintao first took over as General Secretary in 2002 and today, China has given the term ‘superlative’ a new meaning.

In 2002, China had a GDP (current US $) of $1.45 trillion, over 1/7th of US GDP of $10.59 trillion. The picture is starkly different now with Chinese GDP (current US $) at $7.29 trillion in 2011, which is a little less than half of US GDP of $15.09 trillion. Even in GDP per capita (PPP, current international $) terms, China has grown phenomenally, from $2,866 (less than 1/12th of US GDP per capita) to $8,442 (more than 1/6th of US GDP per capita). Net foreign assets (current CNY) have swelled from CNY 3.17 trillion to CNY 25.09 trillion. FDI (net BoP, current US $) has also surged from $46.78 billion in 2002 to $124.93 billion (2010). In 2010, China led the world in terms of exports of merchandise goods, which stood at $1.57 trillion (growth of 31% yoy) in value, and it cornered a share of 10.4% of global merchandise exports.

However, there is a catch, and a very critical one, and we are not talking about the malaise in China’s key export markets. Analysts have long argued that China’s ‘hard culture’ led by a one party top-down system will ultimately come face to face with its inherent limitations. This was evident to the world when Hu Jintao faced a massive rally from an estimated 4,00,000 protesters (as per the organisers) on his Hong Kong visit on July 1. They were protesting against the manner in which Hong Kong was run and also the way in which new Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying was appointed. In China, too, social unrest has been increasing quite alarmingly with rising social inequality. The Gini coefficient has breached the 0.47 mark, which is greater than 0.4, the accepted trigger for social unrest in an economy. The Chinese Academy of Governance estimates that the number of protests in China have doubled from 2006 to 2010 to 180000 incidents, which are over issues like corruption, forceful land grabs, Tibetan autonomy and environmental issues. The general mood is towards better people representation. Wen Jiabao himself commented last year, quite tellingly, that the Chinese government needed to embrace more democracy and implement wider political reforms to prevent the nation from descending into a chaos similar to the Cultural Revolution, which could undo much of the gains that the country has made over these years.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
For More IIPM Info, Visit below mentioned IIPM articles
 

Adapting to climate change is key to food security

The impact of climate change on people and food systems is already being felt in more ways than one. To help vulnerable people cope with the effects of climate change, government needs to come up with strategies and adaptation measures that can minimise the risk. But the ground reality tells a different and deplorable story.

The impact of climate change is unfolding at a pace that’s much quicker than is being predicted. The risks of climate change loom ever more imminent for a country like India, where 70% of its agriculture is rain-fed and totally dependent on the vagaries of monsoon. Considering that over 65% of our 1.2-billion population depend on agriculture for a living and because people involved in agriculture tend to be poorer as compared to urban residents, the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector is far reaching with significant repercussions for our economy.

Various studies have shown that over 80% of farmers in India – who are mainly small and marginal farmers and contribute about 50% of the total crop production of the country – will be the most affected by climate changes. A World Bank report says incomes on the small rain-fed farms in Andhra Pradesh could decline by 5% under modest climate change and by over 20% under harsher conditions, bringing farmers closer to, and in many cases, under the poverty line. The report, while making a strong case for a shift in agricultural systems in order to overcome future climate change pressures, warns that if suitable measures are not acted upon to address the impact of climate change, the consequences would be grave and widespread. The report states that under the climate change scenario, sugarcane yields are expected to decline considerably (by nearly 30%) in Maharashtra, as a result of increased moisture stress caused by warmer climate in the future.

According to Germanwatch’s Global Climate Risk Index, India ranked 7th amongst the most affected countries on the parameter of extreme weather conditions between 1990 and 2008. None of the developed countries figure in the ten most affected countries’ list, which points to the fact that it is the poorer countries like India and Bangladesh (ranked #1on the Climate Risk Index) that are most vulnerable to climatic risks. For example, over the last 100 years in the state of Odisha, 49 years have seen floods, 30 have seen droughts, and 11 faced other extreme weather events like cyclones. Another study has shown that the number of villages in India experiencing drought is increasing. For example, in the state of Gujarat, only 2,000 villages experienced drought in 1961, but by 1988, over 145,000 villages were affected.

Although agriculture contributes only 20% to the GDP of Indian economy, its significance in terms of sustaining large swathes of population cannot be overstated. About 70% of the Indian population still live in rural areas where agriculture provides the only source of income and livelihood. Most of the rural folk live off small farms that are dependent on timely and sufficient rainfall during the monsoon months between June and September. However, with the changing climate, rainfall patterns have become erratic, leaving farmers exposed to the risks of drought and floods. “The agriculture sector in India is already facing problems relating to sustainability. To those daunting challenges, climate change adds further pressure on agriculture, adversely affecting the poor,” says economic expert S.K Dutta. “Climate change is already affecting the ecology and depleting the levels of soil fertility. Add to that the practices of over-drawing of water, decreasing forest covers and over-usage of pesticides and manures, which in turn adversely affect soil produce over the long term, and you get a very grim outlook for the future,” he adds. Experts have estimated that every one degree rise in temperature is likely to lead to a 5-10% decrease in crop yields. Thus, rice production in India could decrease by almost a tonne/hectare if the temperature goes up 20 degree Celsius, while each 10 degree rise in mean temperature could cause wheat yield losses of seven million tonnes per year.

When crop yields are adversely impacted by changes in the climate, it becomes almost unavoidable to keep food price inflation under leash. Already, shortage of food grains due to flood and drought in several parts of India is a big factor in food price inflation, which the country has been grappling with in recent months. Food price inflation stood at an uncomfortably high 9.94% in March this year, the most recent month for which figures were available when this story went to press. The most worrisome part of food price inflation is that it pushes marginal sections of the society, including poor farmers, under greater duress. A study by the Asian Development Bank states that at current levels of increase in food prices, India’s poor were likely to increase by 2.9% and 2.1% in the rural and urban areas respectively.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Saturday, April 27, 2013

An OPEC disaster moment!

Last month, for the first time in history, Saudi Arabia failed to control OPEC’s discrete members. The June OPEC meeting couldn’t reach consensus – and such a situation has happened only once before in history. For whatever it’s worth, OPEC’s cartelized unity was important for the global economy and oil stability. What now?

“It was one of the worst meetings we’ve ever had. We were unable to reach an agreement.” That’s how Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi described the 12-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet that was held in June this year. The meet concluded with fissures emerging within the group. On one hand, Saudi Arabia, along with Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE, proposed an increase in group crude oil output by 1.5 million barrels a day to 30.3 million barrels a day; while on the other hand, member countries including Iran, Libya, Angola, Ecuador, Algeria and Venezuela warned OPEC of near-term collapse of oil prices. Critically, and dangerously, this is the first time that Saudi Arabia has failed to control the group! This diplomatic disaster gets further complicated when you consider the abysmal fall in OPEC’s market share over the last 6 years from 65% to 35%. The meeting ended sans consensus for the second time in OPEC’s history (the first instance was the meeting in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war)!

There seems to be a new power equation forming with Saudi Arabia on one side and Iran on the other. Interestingly, the member countries on Iran’s side have more oil reserves compared to member countries supporting Saudi Arabia. Venezuela (a prominent member of Iran-led group in OPEC), for instance, has more than 500 billion barrels locked under their part of the earth – around twice that of Saudi Arabia!

A close analysis reveals a pro-West and anti-West split. Undoubtedly, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE and the likes would love to increase oil output to keep their dominance high and collect as many ‘petrodollars’ as possible. The other group is conceived to be a firm believer of an anti-West philosophy with Iran in the lead. As is known, US has imposed strict sanctions on Iraq and has very fragile terms with Libya (after NATO’s attack) and Venezuela (where US has imposed sanctions against state-controlled oil companies). These nations are more worried about international oil prices and demand-supply dynamics than America’s diktats. Moreover, for the first time in 36 years, Iran (the second largest oil producer in OPEC) was unanimously chosen for the presidency of OPEC last year. As a part of the rotation policy, the

baton has been passed to Iraq (a member of the Iran-led group) this year. This gives the Iran-led group an opportunity to defy US and its allies.

Moreover, the new hot spots of oil exploration across the world are threatening OPEC’s business at large. For instance, the Athabasca Oil Sands in Canada are estimated to have 1.7 trillion barrels of crude bitumen, out of which a large chunk is exported to US every day. Similarly, Jubilee Field in Ghana has reserves of more than 500 million barrels of oil; French Guiana recently found 700 million barrels of oil within their territory, the Aldous field of Norway is said to have 1.2 billion barrels of recoverable oil reserves and Mozambique discovered 7.5 billion barrels of oil in 2010.

Interestingly, OPEC, which has 78% of global oil reserves, produces only 35% of oil supply; while non-OPEC countries who possess 22% of global oil reserves, produce more than 60% of oil supply! Shockingly, OPEC collectively produces lesser oil now than it used to produce in the 1970s! A Wikileaks cable quotes Al-Husseini (former Executive Vice President for Exploration & Production, Saudi Aramco) thus, “It is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described and the time line for their production is not as unrestrained as Aramco executives... would like to portray.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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Thursday, April 25, 2013

Can JSPL keep its global expansion plans on track?

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (JSPl) has reasons to cheer as it has been able to deliver growth in profitability for the past fiscal when the entire sector has been facing severe margin pressures. But in the midst of environmental and regulatory hurdles back home and an unfortunate debacle in Bolivia, can the company keep the investor sentiment bright? Ashish Kumar of B&E undertakes an insightful visit to the company's Raigarh plant and interacts with senior officials on how they plan to keep the growth story going
When you land on the airstrip of “Jindal Airport” inside the three million tonne per annum capacity integrated steel plant of JSPL at Raigarh, the first thing that strikes you about this once sleepy town in the state of Chhatisgarh is the visible abundance of yellow metal. And no, we don’t mean gold, but the numerous yellow coloured JCB machines and cranes that keep the town bustling 24/7, a sight unimaginable over two and a half decades ago.

As is the norm with industrial townships, the plant area stands out as an island of affluence relative to the surrounding area, and the company has painstakingly endeavoured to provide its employees with every possible facility. In fact, to further secure their commitment, the company provides stock options to all employees, from the topmost official in the plant to the driver who took us around the area. However, the influence of the company on the town is quite evident when you talk to the locals around, so much so that a sizeable number of them prefer to deposit their hard earned money with JSPL for safekeeping, rather than with the five odd bank branches in the area! While the Jindal Hotel in Raigarh has no relation to the group (just a case of clever branding), the town has a state of the art auditorium set up by the company, where locals can watch the latest movies. JSPL has also provided mobile healthcare vans, among other facilities, as a part of its drive to ensure harmonious relationships with the community there. So far, their land acquisition drive in the area has been successful (read: no major flare up, even though all locals haven’t accepted the compensation/R&R/employment terms), making it rare in a milieu wherein numerous projects have been stuck in land acquisition controversies.

However, there are some very serious stakeholder issues that JSPL hasn’t been able to maneuver its way through as well. It faces the ire of the Coal Ministry due to delayed development of the Jitpur coal block allocated to it in Jharkhand (along with 29 other companies who got coal mining blocks). Their proposed 5 million tonne per annum steel green field project in Jharkhand is stuck for quite sometime due to this. Moreover, while the company has taken several initiatives to minimise environmental degradation like making bricks and cement out fly ash and planting some 3 million trees (initiatives that were visible in and around their Raigarh plant), it has also come under close scrutiny of the environment ministry for beginning construction work in the non-forest area for the Angul steel plant in Odisha, before the forest area was cleared by the ministry. In addition, the National Green Tribunal cancelled the environmental clearance for their coal & washeries plant in Chhattisgarh, as it claims that the public hearing of the matter was not conducted in the right way. Land acquisition issues have similarly cropped up with regard to the Rs.350 billion steel plant project in the West Midnapore district in West Bengal. Commenting on the issues, N. A. Ansari, whole- time director and executive director, JSPL Raigarh laments, “Lack of clear cut policy measures has affected not just us but the whole sector. Regulations need to be practically feasible and consistent to reduce the environment of uncertainty.”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

The next ‘Red’ wave!

‘Multi-polar world order, political dynamics, economic transformation’ – if you’ve had enough of all these terms and want to understand China, then this is the book that can help without taking a toll on your head

When Fareed Zakaria (in his book The Post American World) says that we are moving towards a multi-polar world wherein America will have to factor in the position of countries like China and India, then it must mean something. There are hundreds of authoritative commentators out there writing about the rise of China. Unfortunately, most of them are based out of China. So what we generally get to read is a ‘view from the top’. From that perspective, Shaun Rein’s The End of Cheap China: Economic & Cultural Trends That Will Disrupt the World comes across as one of those rare, reliable handbooks that one can pick up to actually understand how China has become one of the world’s most influential economic and political centres in a short span of time, and where it’s headed from here on. As a writer, he attempts to answer what everyone is wondering, “What is China evolving into and what does that mean for the rest of the world?” What makes Rein’s book the real deal is his background. He first came to China as a teenager in the 1990s when the government was pushing for a major privatisation of the economy. At that time, the market was inefficient: buying a plane ticket was a nightmare and fresh milk was non-existent except for in 5 star hotels. More interestingly, members in his wife’s family were personal friends with Zhou Enlai and Mao. This helps Rein in portraying the dynamics of the relationship between China’s masses and governments. Additionally, he is able to draw on inferences from data compiled by his market research firm over a decade. When you have access to such insights, something compelling is bound to come forth. In the book, he interviews billionaires, senior government officials, poor migrant workers and even prostitutes to track China’s changes. There are chapters on modern Chinese women, lessons from China’s sex industry, and how Chinese demand for commodities will cause tension with the rest of the world. Rein goes on to analyse how companies can benefit from these changes and argues that China will successfully make the transition to a modern developed economy. If you happen to be a businessman who wants set up operations in the Mainland but don’t know much about the country, this book is a good place to start.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Friday, April 19, 2013

Yamaha: Can it fire on all cylinders?

The Japanese bike maker plans to take its sales in India to a million bikes in another two years, but its ambition could come a cropper if it fails to rack up volumes in the base segment.

Ask Hiroyuki Suzuki, MD & CEO, India Yamaha Motor, about his plans of relaunching the once iconic RX100 brand in India and you find his face crease into an impish smile. In case you haven’t caught on and are still waiting for more pronounced cues, he goes on to gently shake his head. For legions of bike lovers, during the 1980s and the ’90s, the RX100 was the hottest bike in town, and the brand continues to evoke a warm nostalgic memory even 15 years after it went off the shelf.

However, a lot of water has flown under the bridge since Yamaha took the RX100 off its production lines. Subsequent models like RXG, RX-135 and RXZ failed to live up to the promise generated by the superb RX100. While these brands failed to make a splash, competitors like Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto kept relentlessly jockeying up their market share. Around 2006, things had turned downright bleak for the Japanese bike maker and it was losing money by the barrel. As per various market reports around this time, Yamaha incurred losses to the tune of Rs.10 billion in the last six years and it was seriously considering pulling out of India altogether. But thanks to its heady success earlier, Yamaha’s Japanese headquarters decided to give the second-fastest growing market in Asia a second shot.

In 2007, soon after launching superbikes like R1 & MT01 in the Indian market, Yamaha turned to what it is best known for – making motorcycles that are technologically ahead of their times in terms of styling, performance and features. Products like R15 and FZ series were launched in the Indian market. Their initial success spurred Yamaha to continue with its game plan of introducing models that successfully attract the Gen-Y biker. As a result, in subsequent years, Yamaha launched products such as Fazer, FZ-S, SZ-R and others. Today, the company sells 14 models in the Indian market and claim that it has over 15% market share in the premium motorcycle segment. The overall market share of Yamaha in India is just around 3% even today, but considering the intensified competition in the Indian two-wheeler segment, the comeback plan has worked well for the company so far.

Continuing with its quest to pump up sales, Yamaha posted a growth of 32% in domestic sales during August 2011 as compared to its sales in August last year. The company registered sales of 29,934 units in August 2011 as against 22,683 units in the same month last year in the domestic market. The overall sales recorded were 39,490 units in August 2011 compared to 30,461 units in August 2010, a growth of 30%. But Yamaha is hungry for more and is making redoubled efforts to push its sales further. MD Suzuki claims that Yamaha will be able to tot up sales of 530,000 units in 2011 out of which around 360,000 units will be sold in the domestic market while it is looking to export over 170,000 units. Next year, the company’s target is to sell over 650,000 units and scale it up to a million by the end of 2013.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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