Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GDP. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

In pursuit of happy capitalism

Policies should be directed at making the environment for entrepreneurship far more enabling in India than what it is today. However, entrepreneurs must also contribute to the larger social goal in their own interest

Eight out of the world’s top ten richest people on the Forbes’ The World’s Billionaires 2011 List are self-made, that is, people who have not simply inherited their fortunes, but have built them over time due to their entrepreneurial vision, exemplary leadership and years of hard work. And of course, a huge majority in this list hails from the US, a country that has successfully nurtured the spirit of entrepreneurship since ages; and is also the nation with the highest GDP in the world. These people are the perfect embodiments of leadership, who inspire millions to live their dreams and make them a reality, even in the most unfavourable of circumstances. But there is something more compelling that these entrepreneurs manage to achieve. Through employment generation and equitable wealth creation within masses, these entrepreneurs contribute immensely to nation building and to the subsequent upliftment of disadvantaged sections.

In other words, it cannot ever be overstated that promoting entrepreneurship is absolutely essential for progress – and more so if it’s the case of India that we’re discussing. The Economic Survey for 2011-12 laments that while India is the world’s 4th largest economy, it is also the poorest among G-20 nations in terms of per capita income, which was around $1,527 in 2011. It has been also estimated by the World Bank that India has more than 400 million people living below the poverty line; UN confirms that more than 700 million Indians live on less than $2 a day. These figures are shockingly mammoth.

Entrepreneurship could very well be the only real hope for India to create virtuous cycles of employment to ensure that a massive majority of these disadvantaged classes are uplifted in quick time. If China could manage this kind of a feat, then I fail to understand why can’t India? Between 1981 and 2004, China got more than 600 million people out of poverty – this is more than has ever been achieved by any nation in history. UNDP data estimates that the incidence of rural poverty in China went down from 30.7% in 1978 to 1.6% in 2007. These electrifying improvements correspond to the spectacular rise of Chinese manufacturing and the growth of hundreds of thousands of Chinese entrepreneurs throughout the nation – and all with the proactive support of the State, which ensured continued public-private coordination throughout this growth story.

Leave the macro story, even at the micro/corporate level, promoting entrepreneurship – even within an organisation – is critically essential, The most respected Peter F. Drucker strongly believed that no organisation can dream of being stupendously innovative unless its employees are die-hard entrepreneurs; warriors who live and die with the consistently burning desire to start something new! If I were to expansively summarise the import of his iconic book Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Drucker defined an entrepreneur as an innovator and vice versa. Indeed, that key character trait that separates these entrepreneurs and innovators from the rest is ‘passion’. In a path-breaking May 2007 official Microsoft research release (‘The Rich Have Money – And Passion’), the Harrison Group, a leading international research firm, showed how 70% of America’s big family fortunes are less than 13 years old (that is, they’re not ‘inherited’) and more importantly, that “the people who amassed those fortunes are primarily entrepreneurs – risk takers for whom wealth is a by product of pursuing their passion!”


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Can the Dragon execute the ‘soft’ landing?

The world views with mixed feelings of awe, admiration, cynicism and even some apprehension, as the Chinese Communist Party undergoes a transition in leadership in August, as is customary in the country once in ten years. The 18th National Congress is now widely expected to see Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang as the new President and Premier of China, replacing Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao respectively, a process which should be culminated by early next year.

It would be a gross understatement to call this the end of an era, besides the fact that it was the first peaceful regime change witnessed by the People’s Republic of China (Mao’s last years saw the Cultural Revolution accompanied by large scale violence and the end of Deng Xiaoping’s regime was marked by the infamous Tiananmen Square protests and subsequent military intervention). In the period since Hu Jintao first took over as General Secretary in 2002 and today, China has given the term ‘superlative’ a new meaning.

In 2002, China had a GDP (current US $) of $1.45 trillion, over 1/7th of US GDP of $10.59 trillion. The picture is starkly different now with Chinese GDP (current US $) at $7.29 trillion in 2011, which is a little less than half of US GDP of $15.09 trillion. Even in GDP per capita (PPP, current international $) terms, China has grown phenomenally, from $2,866 (less than 1/12th of US GDP per capita) to $8,442 (more than 1/6th of US GDP per capita). Net foreign assets (current CNY) have swelled from CNY 3.17 trillion to CNY 25.09 trillion. FDI (net BoP, current US $) has also surged from $46.78 billion in 2002 to $124.93 billion (2010). In 2010, China led the world in terms of exports of merchandise goods, which stood at $1.57 trillion (growth of 31% yoy) in value, and it cornered a share of 10.4% of global merchandise exports.

However, there is a catch, and a very critical one, and we are not talking about the malaise in China’s key export markets. Analysts have long argued that China’s ‘hard culture’ led by a one party top-down system will ultimately come face to face with its inherent limitations. This was evident to the world when Hu Jintao faced a massive rally from an estimated 4,00,000 protesters (as per the organisers) on his Hong Kong visit on July 1. They were protesting against the manner in which Hong Kong was run and also the way in which new Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying was appointed. In China, too, social unrest has been increasing quite alarmingly with rising social inequality. The Gini coefficient has breached the 0.47 mark, which is greater than 0.4, the accepted trigger for social unrest in an economy. The Chinese Academy of Governance estimates that the number of protests in China have doubled from 2006 to 2010 to 180000 incidents, which are over issues like corruption, forceful land grabs, Tibetan autonomy and environmental issues. The general mood is towards better people representation. Wen Jiabao himself commented last year, quite tellingly, that the Chinese government needed to embrace more democracy and implement wider political reforms to prevent the nation from descending into a chaos similar to the Cultural Revolution, which could undo much of the gains that the country has made over these years.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
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Adapting to climate change is key to food security

The impact of climate change on people and food systems is already being felt in more ways than one. To help vulnerable people cope with the effects of climate change, government needs to come up with strategies and adaptation measures that can minimise the risk. But the ground reality tells a different and deplorable story.

The impact of climate change is unfolding at a pace that’s much quicker than is being predicted. The risks of climate change loom ever more imminent for a country like India, where 70% of its agriculture is rain-fed and totally dependent on the vagaries of monsoon. Considering that over 65% of our 1.2-billion population depend on agriculture for a living and because people involved in agriculture tend to be poorer as compared to urban residents, the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector is far reaching with significant repercussions for our economy.

Various studies have shown that over 80% of farmers in India – who are mainly small and marginal farmers and contribute about 50% of the total crop production of the country – will be the most affected by climate changes. A World Bank report says incomes on the small rain-fed farms in Andhra Pradesh could decline by 5% under modest climate change and by over 20% under harsher conditions, bringing farmers closer to, and in many cases, under the poverty line. The report, while making a strong case for a shift in agricultural systems in order to overcome future climate change pressures, warns that if suitable measures are not acted upon to address the impact of climate change, the consequences would be grave and widespread. The report states that under the climate change scenario, sugarcane yields are expected to decline considerably (by nearly 30%) in Maharashtra, as a result of increased moisture stress caused by warmer climate in the future.

According to Germanwatch’s Global Climate Risk Index, India ranked 7th amongst the most affected countries on the parameter of extreme weather conditions between 1990 and 2008. None of the developed countries figure in the ten most affected countries’ list, which points to the fact that it is the poorer countries like India and Bangladesh (ranked #1on the Climate Risk Index) that are most vulnerable to climatic risks. For example, over the last 100 years in the state of Odisha, 49 years have seen floods, 30 have seen droughts, and 11 faced other extreme weather events like cyclones. Another study has shown that the number of villages in India experiencing drought is increasing. For example, in the state of Gujarat, only 2,000 villages experienced drought in 1961, but by 1988, over 145,000 villages were affected.

Although agriculture contributes only 20% to the GDP of Indian economy, its significance in terms of sustaining large swathes of population cannot be overstated. About 70% of the Indian population still live in rural areas where agriculture provides the only source of income and livelihood. Most of the rural folk live off small farms that are dependent on timely and sufficient rainfall during the monsoon months between June and September. However, with the changing climate, rainfall patterns have become erratic, leaving farmers exposed to the risks of drought and floods. “The agriculture sector in India is already facing problems relating to sustainability. To those daunting challenges, climate change adds further pressure on agriculture, adversely affecting the poor,” says economic expert S.K Dutta. “Climate change is already affecting the ecology and depleting the levels of soil fertility. Add to that the practices of over-drawing of water, decreasing forest covers and over-usage of pesticides and manures, which in turn adversely affect soil produce over the long term, and you get a very grim outlook for the future,” he adds. Experts have estimated that every one degree rise in temperature is likely to lead to a 5-10% decrease in crop yields. Thus, rice production in India could decrease by almost a tonne/hectare if the temperature goes up 20 degree Celsius, while each 10 degree rise in mean temperature could cause wheat yield losses of seven million tonnes per year.

When crop yields are adversely impacted by changes in the climate, it becomes almost unavoidable to keep food price inflation under leash. Already, shortage of food grains due to flood and drought in several parts of India is a big factor in food price inflation, which the country has been grappling with in recent months. Food price inflation stood at an uncomfortably high 9.94% in March this year, the most recent month for which figures were available when this story went to press. The most worrisome part of food price inflation is that it pushes marginal sections of the society, including poor farmers, under greater duress. A study by the Asian Development Bank states that at current levels of increase in food prices, India’s poor were likely to increase by 2.9% and 2.1% in the rural and urban areas respectively.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2013.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
 
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Sunday, March 17, 2013

Borrowing ‘Riches’ no More

With the Economic Recession bringing about Unprecedented levels of Public Debt, The Industrialized Nations on Earth are facing their Worst ever fears of Insolvency and High Levels of Inflation if Current Profligate Fiscal and Monetary Policies Continue Unabated

Riches running on debt

It was for the first time ever since World War II that the public debt of the industrialized nations actually crossed the primary balance figure as percentage of GDP showing the biggest signs of crumbling for the global financial system triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis. In fact, overall fiscal balances (net of government financial rescue programmes) have been deteriorating sharply since the crisis began, rising by 20 to 30 percentage points of GDP in just 3 years. But the biggest problem this time is that employment and growth are unlikely to return to pre-crisis levels in the foreseeable future partly due to large scale outsourcing. Thus, unemployment and other benefits would be paid for several years and high levels of public investment will have to be maintained.

It’s costly getting old

With the European economies ageing fast led by big EU economies countries like Germany, Italy and Spain coupled with their cradle to grave kind social welfare systems, EU is in for a long rough ride with a further swelling of its healthcare and pension budgets in the future. greece has already capitulated while many others are almost insolvent. On the other hand, USA, the world’s most populous nation with a near universal healthcare system, is already bleeding with a colossal budget deficit resulting in sky high debt levels. It is projected that in order to meet its age-related spending liabilities the United States would need a permanent improvement in its budget balances of the order of 2.6% of 2009 GDP in the next 50 years and 3.2% in 75 years.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Will policy makers ever take technology to the ‘We’?

... and that’s where it will end – ‘I’. Will policy makers ever take technology to the ‘We’? Good question! 

On analysing the Global Economic Prospects 2008 report, it becomes clear that if domestic skills were available to efficiently use the technologies employed, then the Indian GDP could be 4.8 times the current GDP. It’s very obvious that rural telephony and Internet penetration could phenomenally improve the reach of market initiatives and generate further employment in multi-variate sectors. The top performers were able to spread the advantages of IT across their respective countries. But in case of India, the impact of the regional progress of IT was not equally distributed amongst the masses. In spite of campaigns focussing on RTI and e-Governance, the digital-divide can be still felt between the subjects and the government. India stands at 113th position with its e-government readiness dropping by a rattling 26 positions during the last three years. And again, economies like Iran, Maldives and Sri Lanka overtook us. What’s more, India succeeded to find the 54th place out of 69 slots available in The Economist Intelligence Unit e-readiness ranking 2007 – pathetic again! Dr. Mark Dutz, Sr. Economist, The World Bank, while talking to B&E suggests that India should promote all the exciting innovations by grassroots entrepreneurs that are bubbling up from bottom of the pyramid. “A specific suggestion is to build on the National Innovation Foundation repository of more than 70,000 innovations and traditional knowledge practices from many districts across India by encouraging private entrepreneurs to commercialise the most promising ideas,” says Dutz.

Imagine the outcome of an IT united India. If all Kendriya Vidhyalayas have IT education and almost all SSIs and SMEs are linked to a central digital portal which allows online international business, India will not longer remain digitally disconnected. One must understand that technology is just not about Internet and satellites, but encompasses every sector, be it health, society, education, corruption, governance et al. Why ITC’s e-choupal model can’t be replicated to help the farmers or why can’t mobile technology be taken to the length and breadth of the country are questions that the policy makers can answer...

Read more.......

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.

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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Singapore, here we come!

Comparisons of national GDPs with respective salaries of heads of state reveals some interesting facts

Much is being discussed and debated on the issue of who gets to decide on the CEOs’ remuneration in a listed company. This is true especially in US, where shareholders felt cheated by the recession and excesses by CEOs; both in terms of pay and in the way they took excessive risks to take their companies, and shareholder wealth, to newer lows. So if it’s all about taking accountability to the highest level, it does make sense to look at remunerations of the ultimate CEOs – the heads of state. After all, their role is far greater than any of the corporate leaders.

Voters in a democracy don’t exactly have a say on what their head of state gets, in fact, many of them may not have even seriously considered that an issue. But then, is there a pay to performance link at work? We decided to check for a correlation between remunerations of some heads of state with GDP performance of their respective nations; and came up with some interesting revelations.

To start off, the US shows greater parity. The concept of compensating the President took shape during 1790s in the US. In as early as 1789, the basic salary of the US President was $25,000 annually, the value of which in 2009 dollars is $566,000 when the GDP of the country was over International $527 million (the currency being used at that time). Exactly 84 years later, in March 1893, the basic salary of the President was doubled to $50,000, value of which in 2009 dollars is $865,000, while the GDP of the economy grew by 187 times. Salary was again hiked in 1909 to $75,000, the current value of which is an astonishing $1,714,000; even as the US became the second largest economy of the world after the UK, with a GDP of International $517.38 billion. The salary was revised to $100,000 in 1949, even as US became the largest economy of the world with a GDP of about International $1,456 billion. The salary was further raised to $200,000 on Jan 20, 1969; while the size of the economy nearly doubled. And when the basic salary was given its final boost – to $400,000 on Jan 20, 2001, the size of the economy increased to $10.29 trillion. Since then, the economy has not done quite well, with the current GDP at $13.84 trillion, and interestingly, the basic salary of the President has remained the same.


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012. An Initiative of IIPMMalay Chaudhuri
and Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).

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Sunday, September 9, 2012

REAL ESTATE: PRICE APPRECIATION

B&E’s argues why real estate developers in India can go the full hog with their price hikes, at least for now; and we add a cheesy realty review to go along with it one last time this year... 

A report by Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM) validates this inference by B&E. As per the report, while residential markets in India have already witnessed a rapid bounce towards higher values, commercial markets too are expected to recover to their previous glory in 4-6 quarters. Even the market value of investment grade real estate in India under construction has increased from $69.4 billion at the end of 2006 to $101.3 billion at the end of Q2, 2010, which equates to about 8.2% of India’s nominal GDP for 2009. No doubt, many markets have demonstrated higher than expected enthusiasm, particularly in the case of Mumbai, Gurgaon, Noida and Delhi. A lot of investors have plugged in considerable amounts of capital in these regions, and the values have, on an average, now gone 30% higher than the last peak.

But then, there is a concern too. The kind of volumes that these markets witnessed in the first half of 2010 are apparently coming down dramatically in the second half. So, does that mean are we looking at the formation of a bubble in the Indian real estate? “It’s possible, but only in the cities where prices have actually skyrocketed beyond affordability. The fact is that local people are still buying homes on an as-needed basis in most tier II and III cities. Nor is the supply in most of those cities either overly constrained or curtailed,” says Sanjay Dutt, CEO, Business, JLLM. Anuj Puri, Chairman & Country Head, JLLM adds to this, “Absorption rates might stabilise if prices continue to display the northward trend we have begun witnessing. Also, a hardening of mortgage rates might lead to decreased affordability, with fairly obvious consequences.”

Of course, there are builders such as the Lodha Group, Tata Housing, et al, who are focusing at the affordable housing segment under the Rs.40 lakh price bracket. However, even affordable housing is now witnessing a price appreciation. For instance, Lodha Group had launched a project called Casa Bela Gold at Dombivali in Mumbai at Rs.1,950 per sq. ft. in March 2010, but now per flat prices are being quoted at Rs.2,700 per sq. ft. Similar is the case with Tata Housing’s project in Boisar in Mumbai. From Rs.1,750 per sq. ft. in 2009 the prices here have reached Rs.2,650 per sq. ft. In fact, this is the case with almost all the so-called affordable housing projects in India. And with circle rates in high value areas like Delhi about to increase by 100% due to government notifications, there is no gainsaying the fact that land costs will necessarily go up further.

Should realty players then think about curtailing prices? Absolutely not! With the current supply gap, it would be both economically illogical and strategically disadvantageous to not cash in on the surplus money currently floating in the market. A few months down the line when the money supply dries up (both due to RBI measures and the demand-supply gap reducing) and interest rates go up further, wouldn’t there be huge loan defaults? Of course yes. But that’s not our problem; that’s the government’s. And we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. Today, soak in the sun while the hay shines – or whatever that saying was supposed to be!


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
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Wednesday, September 5, 2012

US : EXPIRING TAX CUTS

All the Bush-Era tax cuts are set to expire at the end of this year, meaning Obama needs to act, and act fast if he wants to avoid raising taxes across the board. Or is there something else in his mind? B&E catches up with the US Congressional Budget Office, Moody’s and others for an intensive analysis.

Another alternative is to limit the extension to individuals making less than $200,000 and married couples earning less than $250,000 (which makes 97% of the US population). In fact, this is what President Obama wants. But here the numbers backfire. Top tax rates in US are already at around 40% and an increase above that would prove counterproductive. Even if it happens, the revenue generated will not be enough to repay the $13.8 trillion debt. Further “the option would cost $2.3 trillion in the next decade and without any offsets this proposal could inflate the national debt to 78% of GDP by 2020,” says a report from PEW, an economic policy group based in US. Finally, there is the option of allowing the cuts to expire as scheduled. But that too comes with a huge price tag. If the tax cuts are allowed to expire at the end of 2010, chances are that the US economy might slip back into recession. Further, considering that the US recovery has already lost momentum (GDP is growing at a paltry 1.5% annualised rate, down from 3% pace a year ago) and the job growth is weak (after ticking 9.6% in August, the unemployment rate is likely to drift back into double digits in the coming months) this should be the last resort.

Even Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director, CBO in a presentation made on September 16, 2010 agrees to the fact that “If taxes were cut permanently or spendings were increased permanently, that would worsen the fiscal outlook.” According to him, even if changes were temporary, the additional debt would weigh on the budget and the economy in the future. US Congressional Budget Office told B&E through a communiqué, “If the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts were extended, the individual alternative minimum tax was indexed for inflation, and future annual appropriations remained the share of GDP that they are this year, the deficit in 2020 would equal about 8% of GDP, and debt held by the public would reach nearly 100% of GDP.” So, is there a way out for US policymakers?

One move that perhaps can solve the problem is the implementation of a nationwide value-added tax (VAT). As VAT has a broad base, it could generate enough revenue to deflate the ballooning deficit while simplifying the tax code. In fact, a Congressional Research Service report suggests that each 1% of VAT has the potential to generate $50 billion. Thus, even if it’s started at a low level, say 5-10%, it can generate big money. But, thanks to political enthusiasm and mid term elections due in November, it doesn’t seem to be happening anytime soon.

Another way out could be a combination, where tax cuts are extended for short term (say two years) and spending is cut. Though this would widen the deficit now, it will definitely reduce it relative to current baseline projections after a few years. However, developing such a combination would not be easy. Mark Zandi, the US based Chief Economist of Moody’s Economy.com tells B&E, “A misstep by the Fed could put a high hurdle in the recovery’s path. Yet the need for more monetary easing is increasingly evident given the high and rising unemployment rate, very low inflation, and weakening inflation expectations.”

But then, the US policymakers don’t have any other option. The clock has almost finished ticking and it’s time that they decide, and decide soon. After all, US can’t afford a laid-back attitude at the moment!


Source : IIPM Editorial, 2012.
 
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